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Baruch Fischhoff

Baruch Fischhoff
Born(1946-04-21)April 21, 1946
Detroit, Michigan, U.S.
Alma mater
Known for
Scientific career
FieldsDecision theory, risk
Institutions
Doctoral students

Baruch Fischhoff (born April 21, 1946, Detroit, Michigan) is an American academic who is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is an elected member of the (US) National Academy of Sciences[1] and National Academy of Medicine. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, including risk perception and risk analysis. He has authored numerous academic books and articles. Fischhoff completed his graduate education at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem under the supervision of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.[2]

He has been honored with a 'Distinguished Achievement Award' by the Society for Risk Analysis,[3] a Distinguished Scientific Award for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology by the American Psychological Association, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, the William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement,[4] and a Doctorate of Humanities, honoris causa, by Lund University. He has chaired committees of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Environmental Protection Agency. He is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis[5] and Society for Judgment and Decision Making.[6] He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, Association for Psychological Science, Society of Experimental Psychologists, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Society for Risk Analysis. He has received Carnegie Mellon University’s Ryan Award for Meritorious Teaching and College of Engineering Outstanding Mentoring Award.

His research includes work on hindsight bias,[7] calibration of probability judgments[8][9] (over/underconfidence), preference elicitation (and construction),[10][11] adolescent decision making,[12][13] individual differences in decision-making competence,[14][15] climate and energy,[16][17] risk analysis,[18] expert judgment,[19][20] pandemic disease,[21][22] medicine,[23][24] usability of AI,[25][26] risk perception and communication,[27][28] science communication,[29][30] security,[31] and interdisciplinary collaboration.[32][33]

  1. ^ https://www.nasonline.org/directory-entry/baruch-fischhoff-vifwyc/
  2. ^ Klein, Olivier, Peter Hegarty, and Baruch Fischhoff. "Hindsight 40 years on: An interview with Baruch Fischhoff". Memory Studies. 2017, Vol. 10(3) 249–260
  3. ^ Society for Risk Analysis (1991). "Distinguished Achievement Award". Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015.
  4. ^ Fischhoff awarded Sigma Xi William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement
  5. ^ Society for Risk Analysis (2004–2005). "Past Officers and Councilors". Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015.
  6. ^ Society for Judgment and Decision Making (1990–1991). "SJDM Presidents". Judgment and Decision Making. Retrieved October 2, 2015.
  7. ^ Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288 Fischhoff, B. (2025). Fifty years of hindsight bias research. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 51(2),143-150. https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0001232
  8. ^ Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0
  9. ^ Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5
  10. ^ Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.46.8.835
  11. ^ Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S. (1999). Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007823326511
  12. ^ Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993). Adolescent (in)vulnerability. American Psychologist, 48, 102-116. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.48.2.102
  13. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28(1), 12-28. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2007.08.001
  14. ^ Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual differences in adult decision-making competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 92, 938-956. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.93
  15. ^ Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (2018). Robustness of decision-making competence: Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380-391. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2059
  16. ^ Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B. (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approach. Nature Climate Change, 6, 563-569. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2917
  17. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2021). Making behavioral science integral to climate science and action. Behavioural Public Policy, 5(4) 439-453. https://www.doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.38
  18. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis. Science, 350(6260), 527. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaa6516
  19. ^ Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798. https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447
  20. ^ Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411
  21. ^ Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 33, 133-151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8
  22. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2021). The COVID communication breakdown. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-10-04/covid-communication-breakdown
  23. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration. American Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0040438
  24. ^ Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., Rosengart, M.R., Wallace, D.J., Yealy, D.M., Farris, C., Chang, C.-C.H., Kerti, S., & Barnato, A.E. (2018). Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage. PNAS, 115(37), 9204-9209. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1805450115
  25. ^ Arnold, J., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Yecies, E., Grace, J.O., Klobuka, A., Hand, M.O., Mohan, D., & Hanmer, J.Z. (2019). Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgment for clinical deterioration in hospitalized general internal medicine patients, a prospective observational study. BMJ Open, 9, e032187. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-03218 https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/9/10/e032187
  26. ^ nning, R., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2024). When do humans heed AI agents’ advice? When should they? Human Factors. 66(7), 1914-1927. https://doi.org/10.1177/00187208231190459
  27. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2011). Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else). American Psychologist, 66, 520-531. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024570
  28. ^ Woloshin, S., Yang, Y., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Communicating health information with visual displays. Nature Medicine, 29, 1085-1091. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02328-1
  29. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2013). The sciences of science communication. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1213273110.
  30. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2019). Evaluating science communication. PNAS, 116(16), 7670-7675. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411
  31. ^ Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-9001-6
  32. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2024). Heuristic assumptions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. (special issue tribute to Daniel Kahneman). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09437-3
  33. ^ Fischhoff, B. (2025). Bounded disciplines and unbounded problems (The Clarendon Lectures in Management). Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/book/59320

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